Tuesday, April 11, 2006



Dick Morris thinks so. If the election in Italy is any indication, we may be in for some tough times if Mexico chooses to change their Presidential leadership in their upcoming election.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador is a left-wing neopopulist, and he leads in all the polls in his country despite his mediocre performance as governor of the Federal District. Morris is concerned that AMLO might make common cause with Hugo Chávez to bring the United States to its knees on the matter of energy. Mexico and Venezuela supply about one third the amount of crude oil the U.S. imports daily.

This comes at a bad time. The danger of a major catastrophe in the Middle East is increasing, fueled by Iran's bellicose spasms and its aggressive anti-Semitism, and nobody can guarantee whether Saudi oil will continue to flow to the United States if such a conflict breaks out. Against this ominous background, an alliance between Chávez and AMLO would be terribly dangerous, no matter who occupies the White House.

So far, the Mexican media are full of accusations about Chávez's copious contributions to AMLO's political campaign, as if the Venezuelan's plans included bringing Mexico into his hallucinatory project for a Bolivarian revolution.

Common sense should tell any Mexican president that his most important priority is getting along well with the United States, its very powerful neighbor, principal trade partner and travel destination for tens of millions of Mexicans. But ideology usually is a bad counselor that distorts perceptions.

After all, Chávez should also be interested in maintaining good relations with the United States, the country that buys 80 percent of the oil Venezuela exports. Yet he engages systematically in trying to provoke a crisis between the two nations and does not hesitate to call President Bush ''murderer,'' ''coward,'' ''genocidal criminal'' and ``drunkard.''

What role does Mexico play in Chávez's fevered fantasies? Because he is a messianic person intent on reconstructing the Bolivarian history and geography of the 19th century, it is reasonable to predict that he dreams of regaining for Mexico the territories that country lost after the 1846-47 U.S.-Mexican War and that now constitute the southwestern United States.

With South America rapidly moving toward the rabid Socialist left, will Mexico fall? July 2nd is the Mexican national election...


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