Monday, November 12, 2007

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: OCTOBER MEDIA SHOWDOWN

Building off my last Media Showdown post, I updated my numbers to measure the candidates for October...

For those who didn't see the last post, my premise was simple: Measure each presidential candidate on a variety of media factors to determine if there is any discrepancies in the coverage they are receiving... The three metrics chosen were: Mainstream media mentions, Blogosphere coverage, and individual candidate web site visitors. For information on how the numbers were derived, please see my previous post for details on my methodology...

[Aside: This time around I also mapped the candidates average national poll numbers against their media mentions to see if there was any connection... The green line in each graph represents the average poll position of each candidate over the month of October]


Here is the chart for Democratic Candidates...

Some interesting trends here. First of all, it looks like the MSM is still heavily invested in Obama, mentioning him far more than even Hillary. However, interest in him from blogs and web visitors seems to be waining a bit (as do his overall poll numbers)... Has he peaked? I guess not in Iowa, where there still appears to be a race on. Hillary's rough first few weeks of November may turn this around, but we'll only see the results of that in about a month or so. On the positive side for Hillary, blogosphere mentions and her website visits are growing rapidly as we move closer to primary season. She had the most blog mentions of any candidate (on either side of the aisle) this month and absolutely shredded her democratic competition. Month on month, her blogosphere mentions have grown 100+%, while web visits are up 32%. For better or worse, it appears as if both sides of the aisle are anointing her the democratic candidate to beat. Edwards is still chuggin, but his MSM vs. Blogosphere coverage seems way off. The MSM still seems to consider him a semi-top-tier candidate, but the blogosphere may have decided that ship has sailed. Interesting side note: Overall poll averages for the month almost exactly mirror the democratic candidates blogosphere-mention percentages.


Now for the Republicans...

Just like last month... all over the map. Rudy, Mitt, McCain, and Thompson are the MSM darlings again, although Huckabee has increased his profile a bit as well. Huckabee being pushed by the MSM did increase his web visits for the month, but the blogosphere still seems to be ignoring him. The discrepancy between Giuliani and McCain's mainstream press coverage and internet coverage is astounding. Their 'base' is surely not internet savvy, otherwise, their presence online would be much higher than it is. [Aside: I have to wonder how much longer these types of candidates will be able to survive once the internet is mainstream for all age brackets... In a world where all information is available to everyone all the time, I have a hard time believing they would have the same success they are seeing today.] Thompson's numbers have dropped like a stone the month after his big "announcement". Internet visits have particularly dropped almost 50% from last month. Why is this guy even still in the race?

However, again, the big story here is Ron Paul. His dominance of the other republican candidates in terms of web visits and blogosphere mentions is undeniable. I'm preparing a separate post on his meteoric rise...


Media Mentions per Party...

In terms of party coverage, just like last month, MSM mentions, blogosphere coverage and web visits are fairly even. However, if you take Ron Paul out of the equation, the democrats clearly have more coverage than the Reps in the blogosphere and on the web. MSM coverage on the whole has, surprisingly, been very balanced.

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